By Dom Luszczyszyn, Shayna Goldman and Sean Gentille
If you treated the Seattle Kraken’s Game 7 victory over Colorado as an afterthought, given what went down in Boston a few hours earlier, you’ve still got time to fix your thinking. The Kraken’s first playoff series win was no less impressive than Florida knocking off a 65-win team.
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Seattle faces a similar challenge in the Dallas Stars, who wound up making relatively light work of the Minnesota Wild in Round 1. It was an impressive statement of purpose from a team that turned into a mainstay toward the top of the Western Conference.
Now, they’ll look to do what the defending champs could not — and the Kraken, meanwhile, are out to show that there is indeed strength in numbers.
The Odds
The Stars are heavy favorites in this series, but that means nothing to the Kraken who just won their first playoff series ever as heavy underdogs. Seattle has been doubted from the start of its existence, but have continued winning anyways. A 24 percent chance? Big whoop.
Seattle’s chances against Dallas aren’t far off from its chances against Colorado which might come as a shock after beating Colorado who were viewed as a better team than Dallas going into the playoffs. Shouldn’t the model be higher on the Kraken after that shocking upset?
It is, but the model adjusted equally to Dallas’ decisive series win over the Wild. That mitigates Seattle’s boost from beating Colorado, as does the unknown status of Jared McCann. His availability for this series is in question right now and his inclusion would bump Seattle’s chances up three percentage points.
Still, this likely undersells Seattle’s chances and this will likely be a much tougher matchup for Dallas than the model gives credit for. The Stars are a similarly top-heavy team to Colorado which the Kraken were ready for in the first round and that will make this series a challenge. Dallas has a 76 percent chance according to the model, but no one would be surprised if the Kraken were able to grind out another long series — and maybe even a win.
The Numbers
The numbers slant heavily towards Dallas, who have a plus-45 net rating to Seattle’s minus-five.
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Starting with offense, the Kraken gained the goal support they were missing last year with a league-leading scoring rate of 3.16 per 60 at five-on-five. That outperformed the results which very slightly trailed Dallas in expected goal generation.
Where there’s a major gap between teams is the power play. The Stars ranked third in the league in expected and actual scoring rate on the advantage, stacking up to some of the league’s best. The Stars only built on their regular season, with strong scoring chance creation and even better results — notching nine power plays against the Wild’s penalty kill. The Kraken, on the other hand, were firmly in the bottom half of the league. And that only carried into the postseason, with a league-low 4.43 expected goals for per 60 which was barely exceeded by their actual scoring.
Both teams were strong short-handed in the regular season. The Stars were top four in limiting quality chances and not allowing their opponent to convert, making it a steep hill to climb for the Kraken’s struggling power play to break through. Seattle’s penalty-killing strengths in front of the net weren’t as apparent in the playoffs, despite holding Colorado to one power-play goal — but credit belongs to goaltending there, versus their four penalty killers in front. It’s an area that’s going to keep straining them if they don’t adjust.
Dallas gains the advantage in short-handed defense, and is slightly ahead at even strength as well. The Stars earned a plus-34 defensive rating, one of the strongest ratings of the remaining teams. That’s thanks to how well they suppressed scoring chances against and goals against. The team excels at turning defense into offense and breaking the puck out with control.
Seattle is no pushover defensively, it’s been a strength of their game for two straight years. But they allow a high rate of high-danger passes back, per Corey Sznajder’s tracking, and don’t have as reliable of goaltending, generally. After Round 1, they’ve kept up some of that defensive structure and have the goalie support.
The Big Question
Can Dallas withstand Seattle’s depth?
Before the playoffs, there were two important articles regarding the Seattle Kraken experience. One on the importance of star power come playoff time and another on just how different Seattle’s forward group looks compared to a classic contender due to its lack of stars.
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The Kraken saw immense success in Year 2 thanks to their scoring surge from an unorthodox bottom six, but it didn’t look like a recipe for success come playoff time — not against the defending Stanley Cup champions who had Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar.
Until it was.
Now that Seattle has a proof of concept after a shocking upset the question is flipped the other way: do the Stars have an answer for Seattle’s deep forward group?
At a glance, it seems like the Stars might run into the same issues that the Avalanche did with a similarly constructed lineup. Dallas is very top heavy with a large concentration of its offense coming from the top line. On the back end, the team looks rather ordinary outside of one superstar talent. All of that could spell trouble for a Kraken team that has an answer on every line and pair.
But just because it worked against Colorado doesn’t mean it will against Dallas. Going into the first round the collective Offensive Rating of Colorado’s bottom-nine forwards was minus-42, plus the team was missing one of its top three in Valeri Nichushkin. Dallas is at minus-23 in comparison. It’s still a problem but at a lesser magnitude. We saw how difficult it was for anyone not named MacKinnon and Rantanen to generate a scoring chance let alone score for Colorado in Game 7. That issue shouldn’t be as large here, especially with Joe Pavelski set to return, Tyler Seguin turning back the clock, and depth contributions throughout the middle six.
Dallas is not just a one-line team anymore and to mitigate that further, it also looks like Pavelski will start on the second line to create even more balance against the Kraken. Add a group of six defenders who all have a positive Defensive Rating and the Stars look well-equipped to not only thwart Seattle’s attack, but also throw a mean counterpunch on offense.
The other thing that throws a wrinkle into all of this is whether McCann even plays in this series. Seattle has operated on a “next man up” mentality all season and even into the playoffs with Andre Burakovsky out and McCann essentially missing the final three games. The Kraken still found a way, which says a lot about their club — but losing a 40-goal scorer is still a massive hit.
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Seattle has proven they can win without McCann, but it does lessen the team’s biggest advantage over the Stars, which is their depth. Dallas already looked like it had the tools to defeat that depth and without McCann that challenge looks even less daunting.
The X-Factor
Is Philipp Grubauer back?
No starting goalie entered the playoffs with a worse recent track record than Philipp Grubauer. His performance during the regular season for the Kraken could’ve been worse (.895, 4.08 Goals Saved Above Expected), but it couldn’t begin to counterbalance just how horrific he was in the franchise’s first year, when he allowed a mind-boggling 31.5 goals above expected. That alone was reason enough to favor the Avs. There were others, but Grubauer was atop the list.
Now, here we are. Outside of Games 2 and 3 against his old team, Grubauer stayed above water in GSAx — and even then, he avoided the catastrophically bad start that’d potentially chase him from the net and force Martin Jones into action. By series end, he’d put up a .925 save percentage and saved 3.8 goals above expected, both fourth-best in the playoffs so far, with five quality starts and a GSAx of 1.67 in Game 7 — a one-goal win for Seattle. It gets a whole lot easier to pull off an upset with a goalie playing at that level.
Whether Grubauer stays there might be the single biggest variable in this series, even though recent signs are nudging toward “yes.” What’s certain, though, is that with every solid outing, his play last season gets a little more baffling. Was it the goalie equivalent of a gap year? A longer-than-expected adjustment to a new system in front of him? Regardless, his bounce-back has been fun to watch and fruitful for the Kraken.
The Rosters
Offensive and Defensive Rating explainer
The Seattle Kraken are coming into a series with an edge in forward depth, but seemingly outmatched by the talent at the top of their opponents’ roster. It’s a story we’ve heard before. Ask the Avalanche how that worked out for them. Still, that’s what we’re working with in Kraken-Stars. It’s what we’d be working with in most series involving Dallas, though there might be some change involving their vaunted first line of Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz and Pavelski. They’re the three highest-rated forwards in the series, and the rest of the field isn’t particularly close.
In the wake of Pavelski’s Game 1 head injury, courtesy of Minnesota’s Matt Dumba, Dallas moved Seguin up to right wing on the first line. It was a move borne of necessity, but it also may have unlocked some options for coach Peter DeBoer. Seguin finished the series with four goals, two assists and an expected goal percentage of 58.7. In 55:28 together, Roberston-Hintz-Seguin controlled more than 61 percent of the expected goals and won the scoring chance battle 26-19. Robertson’s individual production dipped a bit — he has two goals vs. 1.88 expected — and going away from something that works so well would represent a risk. Seguin is less of a net-front presence/redirection threat than Pavelski, but he’s improved in that area, scoring on deflections six times in the past two seasons and only technically missing out on another in Game 5. It seems clear that Hintz won’t be a concern, though. He leads the playoffs with 12 points overall.
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No matter who the third player on Dallas’ top line is, their counterparts in Seattle are in for a battle. Jordan Eberle and Matty Beniers scratched their way to a 3-2 scoring edge while on the ice against Colorado, even though Beniers had just one point in seven games. Running mate McCann, the most dangerous goal scorer of the three, was injured in Game 4 and doesn’t have a return timeline. The approach, if nothing else, seemed to work against the Avs. McCann’s replacement, Tye Kartye, is a largely unknown commodity, but his work in his first three NHL games (one goal, 61.06 expected goals rate) has been sparkling. McCann, it should be noted, didn’t travel to Dallas.
Pavelski, presumably set to play in Game 1, practiced Monday with Max Domi and Mason Marchment in what had become Seguin’s spot. Much as Seguin has rebounded this season, Pavelski is still a better, more productive player. Thus, the idea of spreading the first-line wealth to players like Domi and Marchment should be intriguing. Both could benefit from the influx of process and production Pavelski provides. You could make the argument that Dallas’ other middle-six line — Wyatt Johnston between Jamie Benn and Evgenii Dadonov — was their best against Minnesota, outscoring opponents 3-1 and controlling most of the important five-on-five battles. The fourth line, centered by Radek Faksa, has defensive value that gets washed out by offensive ineptitude, though Ty Dellandrea did score against the Wild.
As improved as Dallas’ middle six has been, the Kraken still figures to have the edge. Alex Wennberg between Jaden Schwartz and Morgan Geekie has been a staple for good reason. With those three on the ice, Seattle outscored Colorado 3-1, controlled more than 65 percent of the expected goals and won the high-danger chance battle 7-3. The Eeli Tolvanen-Yanni Gourde-Oliver Bjorkstrand line was a major factor against the Avs as well; Gourde led Seattle with six points, Bjorkstrand scored twice in Game 7 and as a unit, they did a good job at generating quality chances (21, compared to 15 for the Avs). Seattle’s fourth line, meanwhile, wasn’t productive against Colorado, but all three scored at least 14 goals during the regular season. That’s a pressure point.
Defensively for Dallas, Thomas Harley followed up a strong regular season with some nice work against the Wild, finishing with the best expected-goals percentage on the team (62.86). Dallas outscored Minnesota 5-4 with him on the ice and controlled scoring chances 47-30. He practiced on a third pair with Colin Miller on Monday; Miller has sat in favor of Joel Hanley since Game 4. The second pairing of Esa Lindell and Jani Hakanpää had a rickety series against Minnesota, allowing three goals and decisively losing most five-on-five battles.
Seattle’s own third pair, Carson Soucy and Justin Schultz, had some solid results against Colorado; the Stars scored five goals and allowed just one while both were on the ice. That’s a nice indicator of just how decisively Seattle’s depth came through. Seattle was outscored 11-8 while other defensemen were playing.
In net, we’ve discussed Seattle’s Grubauer elsewhere. For Dallas, Jake Oettinger continued to add to his playoff cred in the first round. After losing a Game 1 duel to Filip Gustavsson and some ho-hum play in Games 2 and 3, Oettinger snapped back into shape and closed out Minnesota in style, stopping 82 of 85 shots and saving more than five goals above expected. Grubauer deserves credit for bouncing back from last season’s mess, but Oettinger is a tough draw.
The Stars have the edge on the power play. Seattle’s was below average in shot quality and goal scoring during the regular season, and that carried over to the first round. Dallas, meanwhile, went 9-for-24 (37.5 percent) against Minnesota, with a solid process to match (10.6 expected goals/60, third in the league). Seattle’s penalty kill was 21st in the NHL, so that’s worth watching.
The Key Matchup
For each of these teams, this series provides a second straight matchup of Norris-caliber defensemen. First, it was Miro Heiskanen versus Jared Spurgeon, plus Cale Makar and Vince Dunn. Now, it’s Heiskanen against Dunn.
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Heiskanen had a great regular season and he carried that high-caliber play to the postseason. He continued to excel defensively, with his ability to stop opponents from entering the zone in the place, to using his stick to change puck possession and block passes. Between his ability to retrieve pucks and exit the zone with possession, he was a key part of the Stars’ transition from defense to offense. And once in the offensive zone, he helped extend time with blue line keep-ins.
Dunn emerged in the Norris conversation after a breakout season. He was super impactful at five-on-five, between his offensive influence and zone-entry defense. Dunn was among the top scorers on defense, and much of that stemmed from even-strength production.
The Kraken defender continued his regular season workload of going up against top competition in Round 1, and that was a tall ask because it meant a lot of MacKinnon and Rantanen. That was a matchup he struggled with, as he conceded about 60 percent of the shots and expected goals share in his minutes. That’s something he’s going to have to rebound from because the Stars’ leading forwards won’t be easy to contain, either.
Each team has defensive depth around their top blueliners, but star performances from either, or both, could be a major difference-maker in this series.
The Bottom Line
It’s another uphill battle for Seattle, who has proven against the odds that their depth can match up to some of the top star power in the league.
Dallas has the more complete team on paper, with an edge in offense and goaltending this series, but the Kraken are disruptors who haven’t stepped down from a challenge.
Can Seattle, after taking out the reigning champs, go for another upset and make this an actual series? Or will a team of literal Stars be what stops their balanced approach?
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References
How these projections performed last season
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Top photo: Glenn James / NHLI via Getty Images)
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